Brief thoughts and bold predictions on Iowa.

1) Nothing is over regarding the top five across both parties, and really I didn't expect anything to be.  Proportional representation in Iowa means that in real delegate numbers, no one really got out to a meaningful "lead".  In terms of "momentum", that may have more to do with self-fulfilling media prophecy than something intrinsic to the raw numbers.

2) Steven Wedgeworth from Wedgewords issued the bold prediction yesterday that these results make Marco Rubio "the next President".  I hardly think things are as clear-cut as all that, but given a top-three showing in New Hampshire, Rubio, barring any gaffes in the short-term, has positioned himself for a deep run, especially when primaries and caucuses shift to the South.

3) My personal bold prediction: Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee.  His numbers among young people mean more than the media is letting on, and in addition to possible...legal obstructions to the Hillary campaign, the CNN theory concretizing today that Sanders is only leading in New Hampshire because of it's proximity to Vermont ignore Bernie's appeal to a real and ideologically committed faction of the American left in blue states.

4) Trump is far from finished, but not coming in first in Iowa is a big deal.    The particular importance for me is that the poll numbers before real voting have been demonstrated to be "not real", which I predicted, which makes the 19 point leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina that Trump is showing far more superfluous than the networks would presently like.

5) Iowa is not racially or ideologically diverse enough to give us the surprises I think are yet to come.  And this is also bad for Trump.  While there will be adequate numbers of what Wilson winningly called "the Trumpenproletariat" for Trump to put in showings for the forseeable future, states with larger numbers of Black, Hispanic and upper-class GOP voters will be telling.

~JS